Web 2.0 and 3.0 can and will deliver real value to site operators and their visitors and prospects in 2010. Communities? Not so much.

Recently, I presented how we’re defining Web 2.0, Web 3.0 and communities to several clients, including our POV on their futures in 2010. It’s interesting that these three areas are finally moving beyond all the hype and bright and shiny objects that blinded most Web teams to their real potential last year.

Web 2.0 and 3.0 are finally coalescing into two ends of an important spectrum. Web 2.0 is all about content and information – providing these assets in new forms that make them easier for visitors to digest, use and share. Web 3.0 is actually about changing the interface and how users access these new generations of content. Simply put, it’s about creating adaptive sites that intuit or know why the visitor is there.

From my perspective, Web 2.0 and 3.0 can and will deliver real value to site operators and the visitors and prospects they are trying to woo and win in 2010. Communities? Not so much.

In fact, our in-depth evaluations show that most communities represent a high risk business strategy for companies. Why? Let me count the ways. Most companies:

  • Vastly overestimate the real value and allure of their communities to visitors and members;
  • Assume their experiences with online support and developer communities provide templates for future success;
  • Don’t understand the real culture changes these communities will require;
  • Ignore staffing and training investments that are critical to success; and
  • Underestimate how much communities will cost, both in terms of corporate treasure and potentially, the company’s online brand.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Of course, some community teams will ignore these realities, preferring to be at the forefront of this cool, new — and very sexy — revolution. For these teams, I offer an old saw: you can always tell the pioneers by the arrows in their backs. If communities are your charter in 2010 – and you still believe in TinkerBell — buckle up and grab your flack jacket. It’s going to be an interesting ride.

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